Comments on: Pat Burrell, Philanthropist

By: JC

JC — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 14:36:57 +0000

Sean, I did not realize that you are an economist. See Scully (AER, 1974) for the underpinnings of my model, and the justification for using MRP to value players. The entire economic literature that focuses on the value of players is based on this assumption.

By: Millsy

Millsy — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 13:46:33 +0000

Very good points, DNL. I tend to think the Burrell may have sold lower than he could get, but at the same time, I’m not sure there was much on the table for him. The big market teams were going for the big names and because of his defense, many NL teams may not have been interested. I think the Rays took advantage of all this Manny and Tex talk. Teams were looking to shell out big money. The Rays fit a desperate need in a power guy, and now have a scary lineup with Crawford-Upton-Longoria-Pena-Burrell. The Rays did a great job with this, and I think Pat Burrell will be happy. It was a good deal for the team, exactly what they needed, and Pat Burrell gets $8 million a year. Not sure he could spend all of that. Basically it just comes back to the problem of who’s on the market for the player. If teams don’t want a player, they’re not going to bid him up…maybe to a point to keep some surplus going to their competitors, but they also have a set roster size that won’t allow them to just make sure everything is fair…which may be one reason that JC’s model is high at times. But, as he stated to me in previous posts, it is extremely difficult to incorporate this information into estimations.

By: H

Wed, 07 Jan 2009 12:25:38 +0000

Due to his defensive limitations, it was pretty much assumed that the market for Burrell was limited to the AL teams after he chose free agency over the Phillies final offer. Of the 14 AL teams, the three big spenders were out because the Yankees will fill the DH slot with one of their OF’s (Matsui, Damon, Swisher, Nady, Cabrera), the Red Sox have Big Papi and the Angels want to leave the DH slot open to rest Vlad’s legs a few times a week. This did not leave much in the way of suitors for Burrell.

By: Sean

Sean — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 04:35:12 +0000

JC,

I’m quite familiar with economic theory, being an economist myself. The theory does leave room for “normal” profits, whatever that percent may be, so the player is not going to get all the marginal revenue. Maybe 1-5% less for non-salary related expenses, payroll tax, insurance, health benefits, and 10% less for investments.

Even with that, I don’t think baseball represents the ideal of a competitive market. I don’t remember the exact figures but I’ve read in many places about how the player’s contracts, though increasing and very high, are not keeping up with the growth in revenue. It’s not quite a monopsony but somewhere between that and a free market.

You say you thought some of the pitchers were overpaid. Maybe it balances out and your model is correct on the total money spent, but teams are overvaluing pitchers and spending inefficiently.

Anyway, looking forward to the next book.

By: Greg

Greg — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 22:35:52 +0000

Burrell has a home and lives in Pinellas county where the Rays play. He has children. He is already rich. He is going to play for a team that is still young and getitng better. He doesn’t have to play defense so it will prolong his career healthwise. And Geez….$8 million ayear is enough to pay th ebillas and put a few bucks away for the grandkids. Sometimes being a father and a professional at the same time while making millions is THE goal.

By: DNL

DNL — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 21:49:38 +0000

Maybe the economy isn’t a factor, but you’re missing three factors:

a) We have much better information than we do now — if a rumor is whispered, it makes MLB Trade Rumors and tons of other sites. So Burrell can’t credibly claim that he has an offer or interest from Oakland when they’ve been linked to Giambi.

b) Burrell’s defense is catastrophically bad, and he should be a DH. That eliminates 16 teams from the demand side, and a few of AL teams who have DHs that can’t field (e.g. Red Sox).

c) There are at least two and probably more Burrell-types out there. Dunn is the obvious alternative, but when you expand it, you also get Manny Ramirez and Jason Giambi in the picture, crowding him out.

You’re Burrell’s agent. Make the case that there’s a lot of demand for him. You really can’t.

Does that make Ibanez’s contract an outlier? Maybe. I think so, but I think it’s also because the alternatives are either disliked in a notoriously hostile fan environment (Burrell, Dunn); can’t play OF at all (Giambi), or are too high risk given the imagined price (Ramirez).

By: Rich

Rich — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 21:48:37 +0000

Good thing JayZ doesn’t own any baseball teams. Learn something about baseball before you bring archaic stats like batting average and comparing someone with a career .367 obp to Dave Kingman.

My theory for Burrell: Aside from comfort, (as I don’t think fans booing him bothered him because even after they treated him like crap for a few years, he would still say how awesome it is to play in Philly) I think it’s a combination of 1) likes living in Florida 2) a chance to win again. Everyone thinks the Rays are going to be good for a while so it’s probably the best fit.

By: Don

Don — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 20:59:11 +0000

JC, I will love to see if you still think that baseball is resistant to recession by the end of 2009.
Mark my words, there are going to be a ton of empty seats this year.
In the real world there is a huge economic downturn. You must live somewhere else.
BTW Rob Neyer thinks the Burrell contract is about right.

By: JC

JC — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 20:33:58 +0000

In fairness to Phillies fans, they boo everyone for no apparent reason.

And maybe those weren’t boos. They were saying “Buuuuuu-rrell!”

By: Edward

Edward — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 20:29:06 +0000

Phillies fans didn’t boo Burrell for his big salary. They booed him for routinely staring at called third-strike fastballs with runners in scoring position. The only differences, besides handedness, between Burrell and Dunn are that Dunn guesses correctly more often (career OPS is 48 points higher) and has a quicker bat. On the rarer occasions when Burrell did strike out swinging, he did so nearly stumbling over his front foot.