Breaking Down the Hermida Deal

Yesterday, the Red Sox acquired Marietta’s own Jeremy Hermida (his mayor is named Thunder, too) from the Marlins for Jose Alvarez and Hunter Jones .

Hermida is one of those guys from whom everyone expected great things; but, aside from a good 2007, he hasn’t lived up to expectations. He probably could have used some more time in the minors, but it’s too late for that now. My guess is that the Red Sox will use him as a part-time player who can play himself into a starting role. His variance in performance makes him a bit difficult to value, but I’d argue that he should be viewed like a younger Mark Teahen, valued between $3.5 — $5 million per season. He made $2.25 million in arbitration last season, and has two more years of arbitration remaining. Given his performance last season he’ll likely get a small raise to between $3 — $4 million. That’s about what I estimate he’s worth.

The prospects the Red Sox gave up are decent, but unspectacular. Their value is entirely probabilistic, with an expected value of major-league peanuts (a few million here or there). It’s interesting, because that’s probably how Hermida should be viewed. If he is what he is, then he’s worth his salary, and not much more. Improvement will make him worth a good bit more, but he’ll get big arbitration raises as well. If the prospects the Marlins received succeed, they each have three years of league minimum salaries to look forward to, as well as arbitration years. This is a trade of a higher-risk big payoff for a lower-risk small payoff. And given that the Marlins rely on a low-payroll strategy, they’re probably just happy to have Hermida’s salary off the books.

Do I have to say it? The trade makes sense for both teams.

Comments are closed