Comments on: The Size of the Free Agent Pool and Competition http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2009/11/the-size-of-the-free-agent-pool-and-competition/ Economic Thinking about Baseball Sun, 09 Jan 2011 17:16:18 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Dave http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2009/11/the-size-of-the-free-agent-pool-and-competition/comment-page-1/#comment-106901 Dave Fri, 13 Nov 2009 11:12:16 +0000 http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=2082#comment-106901 JC, this is just hogwash. Sure, every free agent creates an opening. But another player at his very position might retire, another one might have had a bad year and fallen through, a third one might have gotten hurt and so on. The size of the market for free agents does NOT correlate with the number of free agents! Say you are a free agent shortstop. You create one opening. But one other shortstop retires, one stinks and one dies. That opens four spots for only one FA - you!. That would guarantee you the best available contract. But if there were three other shortstops on the market, suddenly four players would compete for the best contract. Granted, there'd be seven openings now, but you might end up with only the fourth best offer. Which market would you rather hit? JC, this is just hogwash. Sure, every free agent creates an opening. But another player at his very position might retire, another one might have had a bad year and fallen through, a third one might have gotten hurt and so on. The size of the market for free agents does NOT correlate with the number of free agents!

Say you are a free agent shortstop. You create one opening. But one other shortstop retires, one stinks and one dies. That opens four spots for only one FA – you!. That would guarantee you the best available contract. But if there were three other shortstops on the market, suddenly four players would compete for the best contract. Granted, there’d be seven openings now, but you might end up with only the fourth best offer.

Which market would you rather hit?

]]> By: Wally http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2009/11/the-size-of-the-free-agent-pool-and-competition/comment-page-1/#comment-106900 Wally Fri, 13 Nov 2009 04:51:33 +0000 http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=2082#comment-106900 Joe, supply and demand might be possitively correlated, but it isn't a correlation of 1. Some guys will retire creating roster spots, some guys will enter the league taking away roster spots, FAs are left to fight for the remaining open spots (more or less). All the while teams are left making different choices on all of these factors depending on whether a player is still under contract or is going to be a FA. Meaning you don't usually bring up a rookie to play SS, when you have a good SS under contract for one more year. This year we saw a lot of bad fielding LFers/DHs on the market and Frank Thomas didn't get a job. Bobby Abreau and Pat Burrell got peanuts compared to what they had been actually worth. So yes, the number of FAs does effect the market. JC is right that it isn't as simple as "look we can get a great deal on LFers because there are 10 FAs," but if teams have made choices prepairing for those departures and in general plan to fill from with in the organization, then yeah, maybe you can get a good deal. Joe, supply and demand might be possitively correlated, but it isn’t a correlation of 1. Some guys will retire creating roster spots, some guys will enter the league taking away roster spots, FAs are left to fight for the remaining open spots (more or less). All the while teams are left making different choices on all of these factors depending on whether a player is still under contract or is going to be a FA. Meaning you don’t usually bring up a rookie to play SS, when you have a good SS under contract for one more year.

This year we saw a lot of bad fielding LFers/DHs on the market and Frank Thomas didn’t get a job. Bobby Abreau and Pat Burrell got peanuts compared to what they had been actually worth. So yes, the number of FAs does effect the market. JC is right that it isn’t as simple as “look we can get a great deal on LFers because there are 10 FAs,” but if teams have made choices prepairing for those departures and in general plan to fill from with in the organization, then yeah, maybe you can get a good deal.

]]> By: Peter http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2009/11/the-size-of-the-free-agent-pool-and-competition/comment-page-1/#comment-106865 Peter Mon, 09 Nov 2009 17:37:05 +0000 http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=2082#comment-106865 I think the point is, 'When evaluating the market for FA's WRT supply and demand, it's important to consider the <em>entire</em> market, not just the available FA's'. Which is undoubtedly true. You may say people already understand this, but more people than you would think commit this fallacy on the internet every day. I think the point is, ‘When evaluating the market for FA’s WRT supply and demand, it’s important to consider the entire market, not just the available FA’s’. Which is undoubtedly true. You may say people already understand this, but more people than you would think commit this fallacy on the internet every day.

]]> By: Brad http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2009/11/the-size-of-the-free-agent-pool-and-competition/comment-page-1/#comment-106864 Brad Mon, 09 Nov 2009 17:06:11 +0000 http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=2082#comment-106864 I enjoy this analysis. Understanding how the market works and finding the cheapest, most undervalued skill-sets is pivotal for a team's success, especially if they're a small market team. I enjoy this analysis. Understanding how the market works and finding the cheapest, most undervalued skill-sets is pivotal for a team’s success, especially if they’re a small market team.

]]> By: RedRobot8 http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2009/11/the-size-of-the-free-agent-pool-and-competition/comment-page-1/#comment-106863 RedRobot8 Mon, 09 Nov 2009 17:01:32 +0000 http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=2082#comment-106863 The problem with that position is that we have a supply glut caused by shifts down the defensive spectrum. The FA market is overloaded with players who would have most value as a DH. A quick look around shows a supply of Jim Thome, Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, Vlad Guerrero, and Gary Sheffield against a demand for just one DH (NYY). Some of this excess supply backs up into 1B and LF, but some works to depress the salary that DH FAs should expect. The problem with that position is that we have a supply glut caused by shifts down the defensive spectrum. The FA market is overloaded with players who would have most value as a DH. A quick look around shows a supply of Jim Thome, Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, Vlad Guerrero, and Gary Sheffield against a demand for just one DH (NYY). Some of this excess supply backs up into 1B and LF, but some works to depress the salary that DH FAs should expect.

]]> By: Joe http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2009/11/the-size-of-the-free-agent-pool-and-competition/comment-page-1/#comment-106862 Joe Mon, 09 Nov 2009 17:00:49 +0000 http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=2082#comment-106862 Mitch, he's saying that not only do supply and demand both affect the market, but supply and demand <i>are positively correlated</i>. And if you think that "everyone" understood this already, you should read some more baseball blogs and articles :) Most suggest that a FA market with many FAs for a position will lead to more "bargains", because of the supply surplus, without paying attention to the demand surplus as well. Mitch, he’s saying that not only do supply and demand both affect the market, but supply and demand are positively correlated.

And if you think that “everyone” understood this already, you should read some more baseball blogs and articles :) Most suggest that a FA market with many FAs for a position will lead to more “bargains”, because of the supply surplus, without paying attention to the demand surplus as well.

]]> By: David http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2009/11/the-size-of-the-free-agent-pool-and-competition/comment-page-1/#comment-106861 David Mon, 09 Nov 2009 16:40:29 +0000 http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=2082#comment-106861 I'm with Mitch on this, if your point is only that Supply isn't the only factor, then of course you're right. But your language suggests that the number of free agents has no effect, when it does in relation to the number of openings. This 'each free agent opens up a roster spot' idea distracts from that point, because there are plenty of situations where an FA leaving doesn't open up a roster spot, but is replaced internally. I’m with Mitch on this, if your point is only that Supply isn’t the only factor, then of course you’re right.
But your language suggests that the number of free agents has no effect, when it does in relation to the number of openings.
This ‘each free agent opens up a roster spot’ idea distracts from that point, because there are plenty of situations where an FA leaving doesn’t open up a roster spot, but is replaced internally.

]]> By: Eric M. Van http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2009/11/the-size-of-the-free-agent-pool-and-competition/comment-page-1/#comment-106860 Eric M. Van Mon, 09 Nov 2009 16:11:52 +0000 http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=2082#comment-106860 This is spot-on, and let me give an upcoming example to make the point clear. Two years from now, Albert Pujols, Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, Lance Berkman, and Todd Helton should all be free agents. Casey Kothchman, too. Do Helton and Kotchman's next contracts (that is, whether they can land a starting job) depend in any way on how many of those other guys sign extensions? No. Why would it? It depends instead on what Justin Smoak, Chris Carter, Brandon Allen, Brandon Snyder, Ike Davis, Logan Morrison, Freddie Freeman, Yonder Alonso, Lars Anderson et al do in the interim. If most of those guys flame out, Kotchman will land a job. If nearly all pan out, Helton may be out of work. This is spot-on, and let me give an upcoming example to make the point clear.

Two years from now, Albert Pujols, Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, Lance Berkman, and Todd Helton should all be free agents. Casey Kothchman, too. Do Helton and Kotchman’s next contracts (that is, whether they can land a starting job) depend in any way on how many of those other guys sign extensions?

No. Why would it? It depends instead on what Justin Smoak, Chris Carter, Brandon Allen, Brandon Snyder, Ike Davis, Logan Morrison, Freddie Freeman, Yonder Alonso, Lars Anderson et al do in the interim. If most of those guys flame out, Kotchman will land a job. If nearly all pan out, Helton may be out of work.

]]> By: J http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2009/11/the-size-of-the-free-agent-pool-and-competition/comment-page-1/#comment-106857 J Mon, 09 Nov 2009 13:41:28 +0000 http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=2082#comment-106857 A.J. Burnett? A.J. Burnett?

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