Comments on: Braves Sign Wagner

By: Atlanta Braves Baseball » Blog Archive » Braves sign Billy Wagner to $7 million deal

Wed, 02 Dec 2009 23:58:59 +0000

[...] a vacuum, I don’t hate this signing. As J.C. Bradbury points out, Wagner would likely yield more in revenue than it cost to sign [...]

By: Peter

Peter — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 15:53:10 +0000

Valuing relievers is a question I’ve thought a lot about. The way we’ve assumed it’s done has always been the team pays for the production and leverages as it sees fit. Though I have to think that teams take into account how they’re going to leverage the production when they’re making decisions.

By: JC

JC — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 14:14:18 +0000

It’s a fair question, but I can’t report performance projections easily, because I convert everything in dollar teams and then generate the projection in those terms. Generating these values is a complicated procedure (especially when it comes to relievers) and it’s taken me an entire book to fully explain it. I wish that I could explain everything in detail now, but it’s not practical to do so. But, I assure you that I will be publishing the full method in detail. I understand that people will remain skeptical of my estimates until my method is fully presented, and such skepticism is appropriate. I have explained what I have done generally, and these estimates are a modified from that same basic approach.

By: Sky

Sky — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 13:31:17 +0000

Can you share how good you project Wagner to be? ERA/IP or K/BB/HR rates or something like that?