Lowell for Ramirez

The Boston Red Sox have agreed to a trade with the Texas Rangers to swap Mike Lowell for Max Ramirez. The Red Sox will pay $9 million of Lowell’s $12 million salary.

I have Lowell valued at around $5 million. Max Ramirez has been treated like prison cigarettes during his career: traded but rarely used. This is the third time that he’s been traded in his career. While he’s generally been considered a prospect, he’s yet to play well in Triple-A. He’s a valuable but highly risky asset. I estimate a Triple-A player of his caliber to be worth around $2.5 million. Thus, the total amount the Rangers are giving up is close to what they are getting. The Red Sox clear some payroll and open up a slot for a replacement at third base, and may have a back-up catcher in waiting. Seems like a win-win deal.

5 Responses “Lowell for Ramirez”

  1. Sky says:

    Is that $2.5M for Ramirez in 2010 or over the six years of team control?

    Can you post your Lowell projection (including fielding) so we know what you think the Rangers are getting for that $5M value?

  2. Unless John Sickel is going to drop his ranking he’s still a B grade prospect, which has $5.5 million in value. Depending on if you think that his wrist injury will linger then his current Triple-A numbers should be ignored.

    While agreeing that the trade itself is a win-win, does it hurt the Rangers playing Lowell over Smoak and/or Davis at the corners?

  3. JC says:

    $2.5 million is discounted net present value for his entire worth.

    I have Lowell producing about 2% worse than the average of what he’s produced for the past two seasons. I use adjusted batting runs to measure offense and plus/minus to measure defense.

    I’m not sure where that $5.5 million comes from, but it is at odds with my estimate, which is based on probabilistic projections of major-league career performances using minor league performance. Sickles certainly does more than just look at the numbers. I’m not sure where the differences lie.

    Smoak doesn’t appear to be ready, and this acquisition may signal that the Rangers think so, too. Davis may not be slated for third, Lowell may not play third. I’m not really sure how the Rangers plan to use Lowell or other players. Lots of factors may enter in to affect the value. This estimates here are ballpark estimates.

  4. Sky says:

    So basically league average on offense in about 475 PAs, plus -7ish at third? (+5, -18 last two years). Do you use similar position adjustments to Fangraphs? (+2 run for a 3B?) If so, that’s about -5 runs relative to average. Am I close?

  5. Andrew says:

    let’s get another posting – i’m interested in your thoughts on kelly johnson. Also, what did you have Ryan Church valued at for the 2010 season – I feel like he would be a great 4th outfielder and platoon option for almost all teams…