The Yankees-Tigers-Diamondbacks Deal

A reader requested that I break down the three-way deal between the Yankees, Tigers, and Diamondbacks like I did the Halladay-Lee-prospects deal. Numbers in parentheses are millions of dollars.

Team		In			Out
Yankees		Granderson (12)		A. Jackson (3.33)
					Coke (3.33)
					Kennedy (3.33)
	Total	12			10

Tigers		A. Jackson (3.33)	E. Jackson (10)
		Scherzer (16)		Granderson (12)
		Schlereth (2.33)
		Coke (3.33)
	Total	25			22

Diamondbacks	E. Jackson (10)		Scherzer (16)
		Kennedy (3.33)		Schlereth (2.33)
	Total	13.33			18.33

Grand Total	50.33			50.33

I agree with other commentators that the Yankees and Tigers came out well in the deal, while the Diamondbacks didn’t do so well. Maybe the D-backs know things about Scherzer and Schlereth that we don’t. Also, keep in mind that these are crude estimates. Basically, I project the expected career performance based on minor-league performance and account for risk. I wish I could explain more about the prospect valuations, but the method requires a long and complicated explanation, and I devote a chapter to it in my book.

4 Responses “The Yankees-Tigers-Diamondbacks Deal”

  1. Kyle S says:

    It’s interesting (although I agree with you completely) that your model says Scherzer is the most valuable part of the entire trade. One of the commenters on BBTF (I know, not your favorite site) described the Tigers’ part of the trade as “a reliever, a busted prospect, and two guys I’ve never heard of.” Gotta love AL fans…

    Other questions, apologize if this is answered elsewhere: does your model use a discount rate for future performance? If so, can you specify what it is?

  2. JC says:

    1) BBTF is one of my favorite sites. I don’t want there to be any confusion about that, because I very much appreciate the worth that Jim, Darren, and several others put into it.

    As for Max Scherzer, a 24-year-old whose posted a 2.75 K/BB and giving up only one HR/G (with a minor-league history to match) is quite a valuable asset.

    2) I use a discount rate of 4.5%.

  3. Andrew says:

    Your analysis seems to be dead on with this one. I think the Yanks and Tigers come out ahead and I keep shaking my heads about the Diamondbacks’ motives. Kennedy might be able to retain a 4 or 5 spot in a rotation in the non-hitting NL West and Edwin Jackson is a solid 3 with #1 stuff. They must know something about Scherzer that we don’t know because he projects as a #1 ace material with 5 more years of control. They don’t come along every day and you don’t give those up for depth in your rotation…

  4. kevin holmes says:

    A little confused about the value of prospects – Phil Coke and Ian Kennedy were both valued at $3.3 while Drabek was valued at $4. For Coke – a situational lefty who gives up too many HRs to only be slightly less valuable than Drabek seems crazy. Guess I need to understand the methodolgy better.