Sheets received a one-year $10 million contract, with $2 million in incentives. I think this is way too high. I have Sheets valued at about $9 million in 2010. I’m completely ignoring his missed 2009, but I am taking into account that he hasn’t been a paragon of health for most of his career. Furthermore, anyone coming back from serious surgery poses some sort of additional risk that I’m not even accounting for. No word yet on what the incentives are, but unless they’re based on Cy Young votes or some other difficult-to-achieve honor—even an All-Star appearance is too low a threshold—I doubt he’ll be worth $12 million. Only once in his career (2004) was he ever worth that kind of money.
On the other hand, I like the Garland deal, which is a one-year, $5.3 million contract with an $6.75 million option for 2011. $600,000 of the guaranteed portion of the deal is a buyout—of which he only gets half if he declines the option—so the potential two-year total comes to $11.45 million. I have Garland valued at around $7.5 million next year. It’s a good deal for the Padres. If he pitches like he has, he’ll be on a good contract. If he pitches lights out, you get a good deal for one year and he bolts. If he pitches poorly, you can cut ties.