## Pitch Count Contest

I haven’t done a contest in a while, and I’ve got a copy of Stumbling on Wins by David Berri and Martin Schmidt to give away. If you’d like to win a copy, answer the following question correctly.

From 1988 to 2009, by how many pitches did the median number of pitches thrown in a game by starters change?

Put your answer in the comments. One entry per person. First commenter with the right answer wins a free copy of the book. As with all contests here, I reserve the right to arbitrate unforeseen circumstances as I see fit.

Ummmm: Zero?

-10

Drats. Millsy beat me to it. Now I have to work through whether instinct is correct.

First: itt’s median,

notmean. And Dusty Baker wasn’t managing in 1988. (He didn’t actually manage in any real sense of the word in 2009 either, but he was employed.)So a few middling pitchers threw several more pitches. And keeping starting pitchers to a 90- or 100-count doesn’t affect that much from the Goose/Quiz/Sutter/LeeSmith/Hrabosky era.

Otoh, the skew of having 16 NL teams and only 14 AL teams implies a slight DECLINE in pitches thrown, since the proportion of DH games went DOWN. (If you assume the conventional wisdom that having the DH enables pitchers to pitch more/longer.)

So the MEDIAN 2009 pitcher is 16/30ths of a NL pitcher and 14/30ths of an AL pitcher.

Best assumption: SP median went up about 5 pitches (ca. 1/2 inning).

Oops. Got my sign backwards. Since the Baker factor will be smaller than the More Teams without DH factor, SP medisn should have gone DOWN about 5 pitches.

I’ll say… 11.

Down 15

Down 7

Down 1

2

I’m assuming we need not guess direction of change.

No, you need to pick the direction.

I don’t know, but since I want the book, I’ll guess 3 less in 09 than in 88.

Down 5

In that case, I’d like to change mine to up 1.

Down 3

down 2.

Up 3

up 2

Down 12

Down 6

Down 8

Down 20

Down 6

Plus 5

up 8

7 less pitches now?

Oops . . . I meant 9.

My guess: +13 pithces.

down 16

Down 10

So what was the correct answer?