## Pitch Count Contest

I haven’t done a contest in a while, and I’ve got a copy of Stumbling on Wins by David Berri and Martin Schmidt to give away. If you’d like to win a copy, answer the following question correctly.

From 1988 to 2009, by how many pitches did the median number of pitches thrown in a game by starters change?

Put your answer in the comments. One entry per person. First commenter with the right answer wins a free copy of the book. As with all contests here, I reserve the right to arbitrate unforeseen circumstances as I see fit.

### 30 Responses “Pitch Count Contest”

1. Millsy says:

Ummmm: Zero?

2. mrchippy says:

-10

3. Ken Houghton says:

Drats. Millsy beat me to it. Now I have to work through whether instinct is correct.

First: itt’s median, not mean. And Dusty Baker wasn’t managing in 1988. (He didn’t actually manage in any real sense of the word in 2009 either, but he was employed.)

So a few middling pitchers threw several more pitches. And keeping starting pitchers to a 90- or 100-count doesn’t affect that much from the Goose/Quiz/Sutter/LeeSmith/Hrabosky era.

Otoh, the skew of having 16 NL teams and only 14 AL teams implies a slight DECLINE in pitches thrown, since the proportion of DH games went DOWN. (If you assume the conventional wisdom that having the DH enables pitchers to pitch more/longer.)

So the MEDIAN 2009 pitcher is 16/30ths of a NL pitcher and 14/30ths of an AL pitcher.

Best assumption: SP median went up about 5 pitches (ca. 1/2 inning).

4. Ken Houghton says:

Oops. Got my sign backwards. Since the Baker factor will be smaller than the More Teams without DH factor, SP medisn should have gone DOWN about 5 pitches.

5. Mervin says:

I’ll say… 11.

6. Random says:

Down 15

Down 7

8. Dan says:

Down 1

9. Rob says:

2

I’m assuming we need not guess direction of change.

10. JC says:

No, you need to pick the direction.

11. dan says:

I don’t know, but since I want the book, I’ll guess 3 less in 09 than in 88.

12. Jay says:

Down 5

13. Rob says:

In that case, I’d like to change mine to up 1.

14. J says:

Down 3

15. bigboid says:

down 2.

16. Melvin says:

Up 3

17. Erik Johnson says:

up 2

18. Michael says:

Down 12

Down 6

20. Darin says:

Down 8

21. Josh says:

Down 20

22. Francisco M. says:

Down 6

23. Tom says:

Plus 5

24. dan says:

up 8

7 less pitches now?

Oops . . . I meant 9.

27. Chris A. says:

My guess: +13 pithces.

28. ebrown says:

down 16

29. Alan says:

Down 10

30. Josh says:

So what was the correct answer?