Sunday, May 30th, 2010,
by JC and is filed under "General ".
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Here’s a paper on the random nature of rare events that might be interesting to stack against the perfect game data.
That’s nuts. I looked at it a similar idea from a slightly different angle and noticed that 35% of all the majors perfectos have happened in May. There’s got to be something to that. I’d love to see some stats that explain why May seems to be prime time for perfect games. The next closest month is July, with 4, which means that 9 (almost HALF) of all perfect games happened in May & July.
Shek got it right — this is a classic Poisson distribution. I just posted to baseball-reference.com a longer version, but the short story is that the probability of two perfect games in a single season, using the rate since 1961 (the beginning of “the expansion era”) is 3%. Another way to frame it is that we would expect to see 3 seasons with two perfect games over a 100 year period.
My other post is here:
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