Team PrOPS

How are teams over- and under-performing their OPS? The Twins and Nationals appear to be over-performing, while the Astros, Angels, and Marlins have been a bit hit-unlucky to start the year.

Team	OPS	PrOPS	Diff.
MIN	0.788	0.770	-0.018
WSN	0.769	0.758	-0.012
SFG	0.739	0.730	-0.009
TBR	0.733	0.725	-0.008
ARI	0.777	0.771	-0.006
MIL	0.798	0.794	-0.004
DET	0.766	0.763	-0.003
TEX	0.730	0.730	0.001
LAD	0.777	0.780	0.003
CIN	0.740	0.747	0.007
SDP	0.687	0.694	0.007
CHC	0.769	0.784	0.014
SEA	0.653	0.668	0.015
COL	0.765	0.781	0.017
BAL	0.699	0.722	0.024
NYY	0.812	0.837	0.024
KCR	0.738	0.762	0.025
TOR	0.771	0.795	0.025
STL	0.740	0.766	0.026
PHI	0.805	0.837	0.032
PIT	0.666	0.700	0.034
CLE	0.686	0.722	0.036
BOS	0.805	0.841	0.036
OAK	0.673	0.713	0.040
ATL	0.703	0.747	0.044
NYM	0.695	0.741	0.045
CHW	0.704	0.760	0.055
FLA	0.708	0.784	0.076
LAA	0.697	0.777	0.079
HOU	0.599	0.720	0.122

I would pay more attention to the ranking of the table first before focusing on the differences from OPS. The PrOPS calculation is based on the last five years of performance; and because offense is down this year, PrOPS estimates are going to be biased upwards relative to 2010 OPS (as evidenced by the asymmetry between positive and negative differences). This could be a sign that league offense has been down by chance and will rebound, but it’s hard to say when making such cross-year comparisons. But I think it is safe to say that teams at the top have had some good luck with their bats that may diminish, while teams at the bottom should improve.

For some individual PrOPS estimates, see yesterday’s post.

2 Responses “Team PrOPS”

  1. Cyril Morong says:

    This is really bad luck for the Astros. Their differential is .043 worse than the next most unlucky team. One of my regressions for team runs per game and OPS is

    R/G = 13.27*OPS – 5.29

    That was over the years 2001-04. That means that the .043 differential is costing the Astros .57 runs per game.

    The average differential without the Astros is .021. So the Astros are .101 worse than that. That amounts to 1.33 runs lost per game due to bad luck. This is all a rough approximation, the bad luck is killing them.

Trackbacks/Pingbacks

  1. […] This post was mentioned on Twitter by J.C. Bradbury. J.C. Bradbury said: Team PrOPS http://bit.ly/98BVob […]