Team PrOPS
How are teams over- and under-performing their OPS? The Twins and Nationals appear to be over-performing, while the Astros, Angels, and Marlins have been a bit hit-unlucky to start the year.
Team OPS PrOPS Diff. MIN 0.788 0.770 -0.018 WSN 0.769 0.758 -0.012 SFG 0.739 0.730 -0.009 TBR 0.733 0.725 -0.008 ARI 0.777 0.771 -0.006 MIL 0.798 0.794 -0.004 DET 0.766 0.763 -0.003 TEX 0.730 0.730 0.001 LAD 0.777 0.780 0.003 CIN 0.740 0.747 0.007 SDP 0.687 0.694 0.007 CHC 0.769 0.784 0.014 SEA 0.653 0.668 0.015 COL 0.765 0.781 0.017 BAL 0.699 0.722 0.024 NYY 0.812 0.837 0.024 KCR 0.738 0.762 0.025 TOR 0.771 0.795 0.025 STL 0.740 0.766 0.026 PHI 0.805 0.837 0.032 PIT 0.666 0.700 0.034 CLE 0.686 0.722 0.036 BOS 0.805 0.841 0.036 OAK 0.673 0.713 0.040 ATL 0.703 0.747 0.044 NYM 0.695 0.741 0.045 CHW 0.704 0.760 0.055 FLA 0.708 0.784 0.076 LAA 0.697 0.777 0.079 HOU 0.599 0.720 0.122
I would pay more attention to the ranking of the table first before focusing on the differences from OPS. The PrOPS calculation is based on the last five years of performance; and because offense is down this year, PrOPS estimates are going to be biased upwards relative to 2010 OPS (as evidenced by the asymmetry between positive and negative differences). This could be a sign that league offense has been down by chance and will rebound, but it’s hard to say when making such cross-year comparisons. But I think it is safe to say that teams at the top have had some good luck with their bats that may diminish, while teams at the bottom should improve.
For some individual PrOPS estimates, see yesterday’s post.
2 Responses “Team PrOPS”
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This is really bad luck for the Astros. Their differential is .043 worse than the next most unlucky team. One of my regressions for team runs per game and OPS is
R/G = 13.27*OPS – 5.29
That was over the years 2001-04. That means that the .043 differential is costing the Astros .57 runs per game.
The average differential without the Astros is .021. So the Astros are .101 worse than that. That amounts to 1.33 runs lost per game due to bad luck. This is all a rough approximation, the bad luck is killing them.