2010 PrOPS Over- and Under-Performers (Through 6/15)

I have updated PrOPS through June 15 (minimum 200 PA). I report the top-30 over- and under-performers. Here is my previous post on 2010 PrOPS.

Top-30 Over-Performers

Rk	Player 			Team	OPS	PrOPS	Diff	PA
1	Andres  Torres		SFG	0.885	0.721	0.164	220
2	Justin  Morneau		MIN	1.079	0.925	0.154	266
3	Kevin  Youkilis		BOS	1.043	0.889	0.154	273
4	Ichiro  Suzuki		SEA	0.830	0.698	0.132	293
5	Jayson  Werth		PHI	0.904	0.776	0.128	243
6	Nick  Markakis		BAL	0.818	0.695	0.123	282
7	Andrew  McCutchen	PIT	0.861	0.741	0.120	271
8	David  DeJesus		KCR	0.873	0.761	0.112	276
9	Colby  Rasmus		STL	0.997	0.888	0.109	223
10	Daric  Barton		OAK	0.818	0.712	0.106	293
11	Evan  Longoria		TBR	0.964	0.861	0.103	279
12	Carl  Crawford		TBR	0.831	0.731	0.100	274
13	Adam  Dunn		WSN	0.951	0.852	0.099	265
14	Johnny  Damon		DET	0.808	0.711	0.097	262
15	Ben  Zobrist		TBR	0.824	0.728	0.096	275
16	Billy  Butler		KCR	0.890	0.798	0.092	278
17	Fred  Lewis		TOR	0.780	0.689	0.091	218
18	Franklin  Gutierrez	SEA	0.755	0.666	0.089	273
19	Robinson  Cano		NYY	1.022	0.936	0.086	278
20	Brett  Gardner		NYY	0.842	0.763	0.079	236
21	Elvis  Andrus		TEX	0.722	0.647	0.075	279
22	Aubrey  Huff		SFG	0.909	0.835	0.074	256
23	David  Freese		STL	0.809	0.735	0.074	234
24	Jason  Bay		NYM	0.790	0.719	0.071	272
25	Brandon  Phillips	CIN	0.849	0.780	0.069	287
26	Andre  Ethier		LAD	1.021	0.959	0.062	203
27	Josh  Hamilton		TEX	0.941	0.880	0.061	268
28	Drew  Stubbs		CIN	0.738	0.678	0.060	242
29	Erick  Aybar		LAA	0.688	0.629	0.059	292
30	Troy  Tulowitzki	COL	0.869	0.810	0.059	257
Top-30 Under-Performers

Rk	Player			Team	OPS	PrOPS	Diff	PA
1	Casey  Kotchman		SEA	0.551	0.749	-0.198	200
2	Carlos  Lee		HOU	0.658	0.823	-0.165	259
3	Hunter  Pence		HOU	0.751	0.906	-0.155	251
4	Jose  Lopez		SEA	0.571	0.717	-0.146	271
5	Kendry  Morales		LAA	0.833	0.970	-0.137	211
6	Skip  Schumaker		STL	0.613	0.748	-0.135	247
7	Ian  Stewart		COL	0.758	0.877	-0.119	224
8	Derek  Jeter		NYY	0.780	0.896	-0.116	301
9	Mike  Napoli		LAA	0.798	0.912	-0.114	211
10	Juan  Rivera		LAA	0.746	0.853	-0.107	223
11	Adam  Lind		TOR	0.636	0.737	-0.101	268
12	Carlos  Gonzalez	COL	0.824	0.919	-0.095	250
13	Cameron  Maybin		FLA	0.631	0.726	-0.095	201
14	Clint  Barmes		COL	0.671	0.761	-0.090	202
15	Carlos  Pena		TBR	0.736	0.823	-0.087	261
16	Aaron  Hill		TOR	0.666	0.752	-0.086	230
17	A.J.  Pierzynski	CHW	0.649	0.734	-0.085	204
18	Pedro  Feliz		HOU	0.567	0.651	-0.084	224
19	Carlos  Quentin		CHW	0.681	0.764	-0.083	224
20	Melky  Cabrera		ATL	0.646	0.724	-0.078	212
21	Nate  McLouth		ATL	0.577	0.653	-0.076	205
22	Yadier  Molina		STL	0.666	0.739	-0.073	227
23	Matt  Wieters		BAL	0.629	0.697	-0.068	231
24	Howie  Kendrick		LAA	0.712	0.777	-0.065	276
25	Miguel  Tejada		BAL	0.676	0.741	-0.065	265
26	Alcides  Escobar	MIL	0.657	0.722	-0.065	233
27	Jerry  Hairston		SDP	0.618	0.682	-0.064	229
28	Derrek  Lee		CHC	0.688	0.750	-0.062	270
29	Juan  Pierre		CHW	0.584	0.645	-0.061	277
30	Brandon  Inge		DET	0.715	0.774	-0.059	248

2 Responses “2010 PrOPS Over- and Under-Performers (Through 6/15)”

  1. Looking at the numbers for Nick Markakis (since his underlying statistics suggest he is having a sustainably good season), I think you might be overweighting HR% in your model. His numbers:

    Line Drive %: 20%
    GB/FB: 0.82
    BB%: 13.5%
    K%: 14.2%
    HBP%: 0.0%
    HR%: 1.1%
    Park: Baltimore (neutral park)

    Other than his home run number, he is clearly and above average hitter (and certainly a better talent than a .695 OPS hitter). However, is extra base hit percentage (8.9%) is also above average. How would running the regression for XBH% instead of HR% change your results?

  2. JC says:

    The estimates are based on past performance. The numbers are what the are. Alternate specifications are welcome.