Valuing Free Agents for 2011

Here is a list of some top free agents, and what I project them to be worth in 2011.

– These values are projected based on recent past performance.
– The estimates account for aging and league revenue growth.
– These values are just for 2011. Over a longer term, value will diminish with age, but increase with revenue growth. Revenue growth is stronger than aging decline; therefore, even as players age their value tends to increase. If a player signs a five-year contract, he will typically get more than five-times the value projected in 2011.
– Values assume the player signs with an average team. Players who sign with winning teams are worth considerably more than their value to an average team. Example: Clill Lee is worth nearly $10 million/year more to a top team than an average team.

First	Last		Last Team	2011 Value (in millions)
Adrian	Beltre		BOS		$12.6
Lance	Berkman		NYY		$9.8
Pat	Burrell		SFG		$7.0
David	Bush		MIL		$4.5
Carl	Crawford	TBR		$15.0
Johnny	Damon		DET		$9.5
Jorge	de la Rosa	COL		$6.5
Adam	Dunn		WAS		$10.5
Jon	Garland		SDP		$8.5
Vlad	Guerrero	TEX		$7.5
Orlando	Hudson		MIN		$10.0
Aubrey	Huff		SFG		$11.0
Derek	Jeter		NYY		$9.0
Paul	Konerko		CHW		$9.5
Hiroko	Kuroda		LAD		$8.0
Cliff	Lee		TEX		$18.5
Victor	Martinez	BOS		$10.0
Kevin  	Millwood	BAL		$6.5
Carl	Pavano		MIN		$9.5
Carlos	Pena		TBR		$10.0
Andy	Pettitte	NYY		$6.0
Scott	Podsednik	LAD		$4.0
J.J.	Putz		CHW		$5.0
Chad	Qualls		TBR		$5.0
Manny	Ramirez		CHW		$7.0
Jon	Rauch		MIN		$6.0
Edgar	Renteria	SFG		$5.0
Mariano	Rivera		NYY		$9.5
Rafael	Soriano		TBR		$8.6
Jim	Thome		MIN		$9.5
Juan	Uribe		SFG		$7.0
Jayson	Werth		PHI		$14.0
Jake	Westbrook	STL		$7.0

3 Responses “Valuing Free Agents for 2011”

  1. Josh says:

    What about the enigma that is Adam LaRoche?

  2. JC says:

    I’ve got LaRoche at about $9.5 million


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