That’s the question Ken Rosenthal tries to answer. The Florida Marlins supposedly offered Dan Uggla a four-year, $48 million extension that he turned down. Like the team, I am a bit surprised that Uggla didn’t accept. I estimate Uggla to be worth approximately $51 million over the next four years ($12.75 million per year). That’s in the same ballpark as the Marlins’ offer, plus Uggla still has another year of arbitration, when he will likely get a little less than his market value.
Rosenthal suggests the following answers.
Uggla, the only second baseman in history with four 30-homer seasons, has slightly lower rate stats than outfielder Jayson Werth over the past three years, but more home runs, extra-base hits and RBI. Werth, a free agent, almost certainly will command more than four years, $48 million.
I have Werth valued at $4–5 million more per year than Uggla. If this is what Uggla is waiting for, he probably shouldn’t hold his breath.
A four-year deal for Uggla would amount to a three-year extension on top of his final year of arbitration, making him a free agent at 34. Uggla likely would seek at least a five-year contract as a free agent after next season, delaying his next deal to 36.
That’s true, but the future market will account for his depreciated value as he ages. Also, he risks having an awful season in 2011 that could raise uncertainty about his future performance. That’s an awfully big gamble to take for a few more million dollars. This contract would be more than triple his current lifetime earning as a baseball player.
While the Yankees, Red Sox and Phillies are among the high-revenue teams that wouldn’t pursue a second baseman in the 2011-12 market, Uggla also could play third base and outfield, increasing his options.
While I don’t think a position switch is necessarily in his future, he would be worth more to a winning club. It may be that he’s willing to hold out for free agency in the hope of grabbing on with a perennial winner that will value him more than a merely-decent club like the Marlins. Or maybe, he wants assurances that if he signs, he won’t be traded to somewhere else in an attempt by the Marlins to capture some of his added value to winning clubs.
Who knows what really is going in in these negotiations, but I think the Marlins have a pretty good offer on the table.