Comments on: Defending My Defense of the Jayson Werth Deal http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2010/12/defending-my-defense-of-the-jayson-werth-deal/ Economic Thinking about Baseball Sun, 09 Jan 2011 17:16:18 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6 By: Joe Jurczak http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2010/12/defending-my-defense-of-the-jayson-werth-deal/comment-page-1/#comment-110897 Sat, 11 Dec 2010 20:13:21 +0000 http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=3584#comment-110897 I think simply, the Nationals had to overpay to secure talent. They hadn’t been successful in landing any FA contracts and I think Adam Dunn, while a decent player, is not a contending piece.

Werth hasn’t played a ton of games in his career and doesn’t have as much “wear on the tread”

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By: JC http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2010/12/defending-my-defense-of-the-jayson-werth-deal/comment-page-1/#comment-110883 Wed, 08 Dec 2010 20:22:21 +0000 http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=3584#comment-110883 As I told you yesterday, I don’t separate aging from attrition, certainly not in any way that differs from saber community studies. In fact, I minimize bias from attrition caused by the “delta” method, by not requiring players to play in consecutive years. Furthermore, when I drop the sample inclusion requirement down to 1,000 PAs and get rid of the years requirement, the estimate doesn’t change much (see here). I’ve discussed my aging research plenty online. I’ve submitted my work to anonymous peer review by experts. There is not much else I can do.

Could players get injured randomly, outside of human aging? Of course, this is something I explicitly discuss in the book. This type of risk is easy to hedge against with insurance and diversification.

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By: Sky http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2010/12/defending-my-defense-of-the-jayson-werth-deal/comment-page-1/#comment-110879 Wed, 08 Dec 2010 18:36:07 +0000 http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=3584#comment-110879 I think one of the largest gaps between you and others in the saber community regarding your aging study is the definition of “aging”. You are looking specifically at the effects of AGE, while others are including other attritional effects (injury affecting playing time, injury affecting future performance), which while not aging, are results of time moving forward (the more you play, the more likely you are to get injured.) You may very well be correct in your assertions about AGING (the specific kind), while others are correct that the other attritional effects are extremely important and should not be ignored.

The sample in your aging study consists of hitters with at least 300 PAs every season for ten years. This pretty much removes other attritional effects — that was your goal, I assume. However, when applied to current players, we can’t make the assumption that they are going to avoid those other attritional effects and only suffer from aging.

So, what I think your model is missing, is this extra attritional piece. What are the chances that Jayson Werth gets injured? How much time would he be expected to miss over seven years? What are the chances than a non-aging attritional effect causes a significant decrease in production beyond basic aging? Those are important questions.

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By: Tweets that mention Defending My Defense of the Jayson Werth Deal -- Topsy.com http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2010/12/defending-my-defense-of-the-jayson-werth-deal/comment-page-1/#comment-110878 Wed, 08 Dec 2010 18:18:14 +0000 http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=3584#comment-110878 […] This post was mentioned on Twitter by J.C. Bradbury, Jose Bonilla. Jose Bonilla said: This should be interesting…RT @jc_bradbury: Defending My Defense of the Jayson Werth Deal http://bit.ly/ifqfGI […]

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