Archive for Braves
The Bobby Cox Effect
Thomas Lake has a nice retrospective article on Bobby Cox’s ejections in the current issue of Sports Illustrated. If you have read it, you might have seen my brief contribution.
FEW HUMAN endeavors have been studied so closely by so many people with such fascination for such a long time as the game of baseball. Historians, economists and statisticians scrutinize everything that happens and compare it with everything else that already happened, going back to 1871. This ocean of numbers can tell us a lot about Bobby Cox. For example: He makes pitchers better. J.C. Bradbury, author of the 2008 book The Baseball Economist: The Real Game Exposed, looked at pitchers who had thrown for multiple teams and compared their performances for Cox with their performances for other teams. Using a sophisticated technique called multiple regression analysis, Bradbury factored out variables such as hitter-friendly ballparks, league ERA differences, team defense and pitchers’ ages. What remained was a meaningful Cox Effect, worth about a quarter of a run every nine innings. (True, the Leo Mazzone Effect was even larger, but the Cox Effect existed even in the 14 years Mazzone wasn’t Cox’s pitching coach.)
I looked at pitchers with more than 30 innings pitched in a season and hitters with more than 100 plate appearances who played for Bobby Cox and at least one other manager. The tables below report the estimates. The performance numbers are park corrected.
ERA
Bobby Cox -0.256
(3.95)**
Career ERA 0.833
(16.36)**
LgERA 0.249
(2.71)**
Tm BABIP 10.839
(4.12)**
Age -0.341
(6.10)**
Age2 0.006
(6.28)**
Constant 1.686
(1.61)
Observations 1519
R-squared 0.29
Robust t statistics in parentheses
* significant at 5%; ** significant at 1%
OPS
Bobby Cox -0.006
(1.24)
Career OPS 0.935
(42.88)**
LgOPS 0.415
(6.48)**
Age 0.028
(4.98)**
Age2 -0.00046
(5.01)**
Constant -0.670
(7.00)**
Observations 1833
R-squared 0.52
Robust t statistics in parentheses
* significant at 5%; ** significant at 1%
Why Is Braves Attendance Up?
Carroll Rogers has noticed that attendance is up for the Braves and asks readers to suggest explanations.
The Braves have only played 12 games at home this season – entering a seven-game home stand that opens on Friday at Turner Field. But so far the returns in attendance are up.
The Braves’ average home attendance has increased by 20 percent from about this time last year, according to figures in a recent Wall Street Journal article. The Braves’ increase is second only to Minnesota for the biggest increase in Major League Baseball through games of May 8….
So what do you think it’s about? Is Jason Heyward having that big an impact? Or is it because this is manager Bobby Cox’s last season? Or is it because of good weather or that three-game series against the Cubs to open the season?
Readers seem to think Heyward and Cox are the big draws, but I think there are a few other factors involved. And after looking at the numbers, I think you can make the case that the numbers so far suggest that attendance might very well go down this year.
Here are the raw numbers from 2009 and 2010, courtesy of Baseball-Reference.
2009 2010 Gm# Date Opp Attendance Gm# Date Opp Attendance 4 Friday Apr 10 WSN 48,327 1 Monday Apr 5 CHC 53,081 5 Saturday Apr 11 WSN 34,325 2 Wednesday Apr 7 CHC 36,170 6 Sunday Apr 12 WSN 19,873 3 Thursday Apr 8 CHC 27,443 7 Tuesday Apr 14 FLA 16,293 10 Friday Apr 16 COL 27,692 8 Wednesday Apr 15FLA 19,204 11 Saturday Apr 17 COL 32,602 9 Thursday Apr 16 FLA 21,072 12 Sunday Apr 18 COL 26,546 19 Monday Apr 27 STL 16,739 13 Tuesday Apr 20 PHI 18,032 20 Tuesday Apr 28 STL 18,121 14 Wednesday Apr 21PHI 21,171 21 Wednesday Apr 29STL 19,127 15 Thursday Apr 22 PHI 22,476 22 Friday May 1 HOU 29,309 23 Friday Apr 30 HOU 30,082 23 Saturday May 2 HOU 28,203 24 Saturday May 1 HOU 27,035 24 Sunday May 3 HOU 27,921 25 Sunday May 2 HOU 25,665 25 Monday May 4 NYM 19,132 26 Tuesday May 5 NYM 21,049 Overall Mean 24,193 Overall Mean 29,000 Weekend Games 6 Weekend Games 6 Total 177,781 Total 169,622 Mean 29,630 Mean 28,270 Weekday Games 8 Weekday Games 6 Total 150,737 Total 178,373 Mean 18,842 Mean 29,729 Opening Total 102,525 Opening Total 116,694 Mean 34,175 Mean 38,898 Houston Total 85,433 Houston Total 82,782 Mean 28,478 Mean 27,594
There are a few things to note here. The first thing I notice is that there were more weekday (Monday-Thursday) games in 2009 than 2010, which normally generate lower attendance than weekend games. This is going to bring the average down. This disparity is exacerbated by the fact that the Braves opened the series against the Cubs on a weekday. The opening series, especially the first game, traditionally brings a huge crowd. And when the Cubs come to Turner Field, it might as well be a home game for the Cubs. This year, the Braves actually outdrew last year’s opening series by 14%, even though the 2009 home opener was held over the weekend. That goes to show what hosting the Cubs versus the Nationals will do for you.
I think a good barometer for how attendance will change this year is the comparison between the 2009 and 2010 Houston series, because both were held over a weekend at about the same time in the season. This year the Braves drew 884 fewer fans per game to the Houston series than last year. If Cox and Heyward were a part of the 20% boost, it should show up here.
Having Heyward and Cox on board certainly don’t hurt—they may be preventing attendance from shrinking—but I don’t think that they have much to do with the rise in average attendance so far. This does not mean that attendance will not be up later in the season. If the Braves start winning as the season progresses, I expect that attendance will rise. Despite the team’s early woes, I think think the roster is built to win, which will ultimately put fans in the seats.
Edit: I initially attributed the AJC blog post to David O’Brien. My apologies to Ms. Rogers, who also does an excellent job covering the Braves.
Hot Starts: Heyward versus Francoeur
Jason Heyward has just played his 30th game in the big leagues, and oh what a start it has been. A local kid rising to meet exceptional expectations; it kind of reminds me of another young phenom.
So, I decided to compare Jason Heyward’s first 30 games to Jeff Francoeur’s first 30 games in the majors. And I was a bit surprised by what I found.
| PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | BA | OBP | SLG | ISO | OPS | |
| Jeff Francoeur | 113 | 110 | 41 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 28 | 0 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0.373 | 0.389 | 0.755 | 0.382 | 1.144 |
| Jason Heyward | 116 | 93 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 28 | 20 | 27 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.301 | 0.431 | 0.613 | 0.312 | 1.044 |
Despite Heyward’s hot start, Francoeur’s beginning was arguably hotter. Francoeur had more homers, a higher average, a higher slugging percentage, and a higher OPS. Does this foretell a similar demise for Heyward (Francoeur currently has a .705 OPS for the Mets)? While I won’t be surprised if Heyward’s numbers fall some, there are some distinct differences between the two players.
The first difference is obvious: walks. At the same point in their major league careers, Heyward has 20 walks; Francoeur wouldn’t get his first walk until four games later, and it was intentional. Heyward has the plate discipline that Francoeur still lacks.
And more important are their minor-league performances. Francoeur had decent, but unimpressive, minor-league numbers. Heyward had a better minor-league career, absolutely destroying the Double-A. Analyzing minor-league stats is tricky, so below I use the markers I employ for predicting major-league success from minor-league performance (see my upcoming book for justification): walk rate, strikeout rate, and isolated power (age is also important). These stats are for their High-A and Double-A performances before they joined the big league team. (Stats below High-A do not predict success well. Heyward barely played in Triple-A, and I excluded Francoeur’s 2008 demotion.).
| BB% | K% | Iso | |
| Jason Heyward | 11.75% | 12.21% | 0.231 |
| Jeff Francoeur | 5.31% | 19.75% | 0.205 |
So, despite their similar hot starts, Braves fans shouldn’t worry about Heyward becoming Francoeur. On the surface, the players’ hot starts may appear similar, but their skill sets are quite different. Heyward is already better than Francoeur will ever be, and his future looks very bright.
Suggestions for Getting Fans Excited about the Braves Again
For my birthday last year, my daughter and I went to a night game to see the Braves take on the Marlins while they were in hot pursuit of the NL Wildcard. It also happened to be $1 ticket night. We arrived early to avoid the crowd, but I soon realized that it wasn’t necessary. A mere 25,000 was the listed attendance for this pivotal game, but even that low number was an exaggeration on the high side.
Despite the small crowd, it was one of the most enjoyable games I’ve ever attended at the Ted. The crowd wasn’t just there for the cheap tickets, they were into the game and its playoff implications. Even my six-year-old didn’t want to leave her seat. In between innings, I scanned the empty seats and wondered what the Braves could do to get people to pay more attention to a team that is likely to be a winner in the coming years. I’m not a PR consultant, but I have a few ideas.
– As the $1 ticket experience revealed, the main price of the game isn’t the ticket. Time, parking, and safety are the big costs. People have plenty of other entertainment options, including watching the game on TV. The game has to offer something extra. At a minimum, the area around the stadium has to be cleaned up. Parking in a poorly-lit church lot and walking past a parade of beggars through a sketchy area of town is a big deterrent. I know you want people to get into the stadium to spend money, but scaring them in probably isn’t the best tactic if they don’t go down to the stadium in the first place. Buy some property around the stadium and clean it up. Expand parking opportunities to lessen traffic. Build some bars or restaurants outside the stadium that are only open around games. The goal isn’t to run directly profitable businesses in these establishments, but to clean up the area around the stadium. (Oh wait, a stadium didn’t spur economic development on its own?)
– Get some new between-innings “entertainment.” I don’t go to that many games and even I knew the script as to what was coming, right up the the annoying “Thank God, I’m a Country Boy” sing along. Do something new, and don’t do the same thing every game. Dare I suggest using the giant scoreboard to talk about baseball? Focus on pennant races, game updates, and web gems. Maybe use the television announcers with some between-inning commentary to integrate the broadcast experience that is familiar to Braves fans.
– Sell this team as a winner. Last season’s ad campaign focused on Turner Field. Turner Field? Look, I like the Ted as much as the next fan, but its 14 years old: too old to be seen as a new and exciting, and too new to have nostalgic value. The seasons before, they sold the “baby Braves,” and that turned out to be boring when all but one of them blossomed. How about selling Atlanta fans a winning team? Don’t just put a winner on the field, remind fans that that’s the goal that this team is aiming for. This team is going to be a contender. Come watch us take on the Division rival NL Champion Phillies! Isn’t that exciting? Why not use it.
– Signal that this team is different to fans. Let fans see a visible sign that this team is different. No more, hanging around until mid-season before breaking your heart. How can you signal this? Why not new uniforms? Be bold. Deviate from the string of Division championships as a motivation for following the team; that was five seasons ago. Adopt a slogan like, “A Whole New Breed of Winners,” but less lame.
– Be more open with fans, and cut the corporate trust-us-we-know-what-we’re-doing attitude. For example, just yesterday, John Schuerholz told Mark Bowman the following.
In addition, those fans who have summed the estimated salaries that the Braves will dish out this summer, find themselves wondering why it appears the Braves might be spending somewhere in the neighborhood of $5 million less than they did during the 2009 season.
When asked about the 2010 payroll, Braves president John Schuerholz said it will remain the same despite that fewer fans came to Turner Field in 2009.
“It won’t be diminished at all,” Schuerholz said. “In the face of the economy and in the face of the downturn that we and a lot of other clubs had to deal with in terms of attendance and such, we’re not backing off. We’re going to continue committing all that we can in what I think is a very reasonable manner to put the club together.”
Calculations of salaries provided in 2009 confirm the Braves’ payroll was about $95 million. Estimated costs that will be incurred during the summer appear to rest in the neighborhood of $85 million.
Still the Braves contend that their payroll once again rests near the $90 million figure that was enhanced in 2009 with the insurance dollars they received while Tim Hudson spent the first five months of the season rehabbing from Tommy John elbow reconstruction surgery.
This act is tiresome, and the condescending double-speak rubs everyone the wrong way. Fans have been buzzing all offseason about what the team was going to do with a payroll equivalent to last year’s, which is commonly listed at about $97 million.
Why suddenly act like this is what the team has been planning all along, and you’re just ignorant for thinking otherwise? Cut the bullshit. You either cut payroll by trading Vazquez, or you have been misleading fans by allowing the false expectation of a mid-$90 million payroll to persist. Insulting fans isn’t a way to build fan loyalty. And if this was on innocent divergence in expectations between fans and the front office, address it head on. Why are we just now learning about the Hudson insurance issue caveat to the “stable payroll” talking point that’s been pushed? Because this should be obvious to everyone, right? This could have been explained to a beat reporter weeks ago. Now after making some good moves, Braves fans are disappointed.
– It’s time for the Braves to embrace the new media. Braves fans just don’t watch TV, listen to the radio, and read the newspaper. And they read more than MLB.com in the Internet. Invite some fan-bloggers to the stadium for a meet-and-greet, maybe even hand out a few press credentials. How about Frank Wren sitting down for an interview with Mac Thomason, whose been blogging about the Braves before the term “blog” existed.
– And speaking of Frank Wren, let’s see some more of him. I have been very impressed with Wren’s open and frank style in interviews. He comes off friendly and honest, and he’s made some good moves. He’s very different than his predecessor, and I think the club would benefit from seeing Wren as the club’s figurehead; especially, with Bobby Cox stepping down after the season. To his credit, Wren does make himself available to the media, and I think he should continue to expand to new outlets.
Braves Get Crunk on Free Agents
Step 1: Trade away ace starter.
Step 2: Use freed up salary to sign Troy Glaus and Eric Hinske.
Step 3: Run on season tickets begins.
Looks like the Braves are not increasing their budget in a way that seemed like they might. Don’t get me wrong, I think Glaus and Hinske are fine players, and their contracts are reasonable. Like many other Braves fans, I thought the team would be adding better bat. But, as much as I want to hate these moves, I don’t.
If Glaus is healthy, and I think there is good reason to believe that he is, he’s an upgrade over LaRoche for a measly $4 million—the total amount he’s owed if he maxes out his incentives. Excluding his 2009, he’s a $9-$10 million player. For the guaranteed $1.75 million portion of the contract, that’s a risk worth taking. But, it doesn’t appear that other GMs were beating down his door, so we’ll have to see.
Hinske could make a nice platoon partner for Matt Diaz. It’s kind of a shame that Diaz was denied everyday opportunities while Golden Boy stunk up the joint, but the Braves are a better team with Diaz sharing some at-bats with Hinske. Although, early indications are that Hinske will pinch hit and back up, with Bobby Cox in charge, that means you play a hell of a lot. No word on the contract terms, but it sounds like he’s cheap.
As uninspiring as these moves sound, I like the deals.
Vazquez for Cabrera
So, after hurting Derek “there wasn’t anybody holding a gun to their heads” Lowe’s precious feelings by openly shopping him (I guess you can’t really control leaks from other teams) the Braves traded Javier Vazquez and Boone Logan to the New York Yankees for [holds nose] Melky Cabrera, Mike Dunn, and Arodys Vizcaino. As a Braves fan, I say “yuck” even though the deal isn’t really that bad. I liked Vazquez and I don’t care for Cabrera. But, when it comes down to it, this is a financial transaction, which I think signals that the Braves plan to sign a major free agent.
Here’s the deal. Vazquez is owed $11.5 million for 2010, and then he’s a free agent. I estimate that his performance will be worth about $12.5 million to an average team. Because the Braves and Yankees project to be above average teams, he’s actually a little more valuable. Even then, he’s not worth a great deal beyond his salary.
Cabrera is a poor man’s Jeff Francoeur. He’ll earn somewhere close to $3 million in arbitration, and put up some mediocre numbers off the bench. If he’s used properly—please, Bobby, use him off the bench only—that’s about what he’ll be worth. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him non-tendered after the season. Dunn and Logan are similar. Vizcaino rates high on many prospect lists, but he’s a long way off. Basically, this comes down to a swap of Vazquez’s surplus value for Vizcaino’s discounted expected future value.
The moral of the story is that when you’re paying a guy close to what he’s worth, you’re not going to get back much in a trade, even if he’s quite good.
The Braves just got a lot worse for next year as a team, but they also just shed a lot of payroll. The Braves aren’t expecting Cabrera to be the bat they need. To me this signals that the Braves are going after Bay or Holliday as a free agent, or they can take on a hitter with a big salary in a trade. Given the Braves problems with attracting fans at the ballpark, I think it’s important for the organization to build on last year’s momentum. Dumping Vazquez with no other corresponding moves doesn’t seem like the plan.
Braves DFA Church
The Braves have designated Ryan Church for assignment. I find it interesting that last season the Braves offered an inferior Jeff Francoeur exactly what Church made last season—he would ultimately end up settling for $3.375 million.
Francoeur Church Career .268/.312/.434 .272/.345/.441 Previous .239/.294/.359 .273/.338/.384 Arb. Offer $2.8 million DFA
Church probably wasn’t going to get much of a raise after his poor 2010. He’s a good defender, who will likely bounce back with the bat. Though he did have some injury issues, he appeared to have been benched by Cox at the end of the year. For whatever reason, Church does not endear himself to managers. Maybe he’s not worth tendering a contract, but it reveals the Braves double-standard towards its golden boy that infuriated fans. Of course, the Braves could still get something of value in a trade, but we’ll have to see what happens.
Did Soriano’s Agent Find a Way Around Draft Pick Compensation?
Like most observers, I was surprised that Rafael Soriano accepted the Braves’ offer of arbitration last night. Soriano’s agent Peter Greenberg seems to have indicated to the Braves that he doesn’t expect his client to pitch for the crowded Braves bullpen, but to be traded.
“If they accept arbitration, I don’t think they’ll be in a role that they’ll be excited about, based on what they did last year,” Wren said. “I would anticipate them coming to us and asking us to trade them once the market develops and goes forward.”
This decision appears to indicate that Soriano is a risk-taker. Soriano is likely worth about what he would get in an arbitration hearing, but he’ll lose out on a multi-year deal that he could sign as a free agent. And, it seems unlikely that the Braves and Soriano will agree to a long-term deal. He’ll get a big payday this year, then head out for free agency next year.
But, I wonder if there might be another explanation. Soriano is a Type A free agent, which means that any team that signs him would likely have to give up its first-round pick to the Braves. This compensation cuts into the salary that his signing team might be willing to pay him, depending on how the signing team values the Braves’ draft pick. The solution is to unbundle the pick from the player. Should the Braves trade Soriano, there is no lost-free-agent compensation. Since Soriano will likely be worth about what he will get in arbitration, no team will be willing to give up much for him. We’re talking a minor prospect instead of a first-round talent. Soriano then reaps his full value for next year.
The next step is to approve a trade. After the trade goes down, Soriano can approach his new team to discuss a long-term deal to guarantee security without even throwing a pitch in 2010. Maybe the Braves can capture some of that value in prospects, given that they know this is a possibility, but Soriano really holds all the cards. Reports are (though it’s not clear to me where this is in the CBA) that Soriano must approve any trades before June 15. Plus, he can always threaten not to sign a long-run deal with his new team; thus, teams aren’t going to be willing give up much more than what he’s worth on a one-year deal.
Now, this is all hypothetical justification after the fact, but I have to say that upon reflection this is making a little more sense. The end result is that Soriano gets his full value for next season and possibly a long-term deal similar to what he would have gotten as a free agent; all without having draft-pick compensation sap some of his worth. I wouldn’t be surprised if Peter Greenberg attracts some new clients if he pulls this off. Oh, and draft-pick compensation will certainly be going away in the next CBA.
Why Soriano Won’t Accept Arbitration
When the Braves signed Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito, front office sources made it clear that they expected Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano to reject the club’s arbitration offer. But then Soriano’s agent Peter Greenberg started dropping hints that his client might just take up the Braves on their offer. Why? Some insiders have speculated that Soriano could get $8 million in arbitration, which is more than he might command on the free-agent market.
I think that salary number is a bit high, but let’s assume it’s true. Still, I don’t think Soriano will accept arbitration. And here’s why. Arbitration is good only for one year. If all goes well, he just postpones he gets a big annual salary and postpones his free agency by a year. No big deal, right? Take the money while it’s good, then hit the market after putting up another good season. But, what if things don’t go well? Let’s say his surgically-repaired elbow starts to flare up, or a new injury jumps up to bite him, possibly knocking him out of baseball altogether. Like all players, Soriano’s net worth is tied up in one skill. If it disappears, he’s out a lot of money.
Most of us don’t have our skills valued over such a narrow range. Even if the industry we work in implodes, most skills are transferable to new areas. Not so with baseball. Baseball players often insure against risk by trading higher annual salaries for long-run guaranteed salary. Teams are often willing to oblige, not only because they get the player at a lower price, but because they can diversify injury risks across many players. Some players will get injured, others won’t; the end result is that the team will come out ahead—that’s why insurance is a successful business.
Now back to Soriano. The advantages of free agency include not only forcing teams to compete for your services, but it also opens up more possibilities of long-run contracts. If you were in Soriano’s shoes, would you prefer a one-year, $8 million contract to two years at $12 million, or three years at $15 million? It’s ultimately a personal decision, but I’d have to think that the long-run guarantee is more valuable than garnering a high salary for one year.
I suspect that Soriano is willing to trade some risk for security, which is why I believe that it’s unlikely that Soriano accepts the Braves’ offer.
Update: Or maybe he will. Soriano surprises Braves, accepts arbitration
Braves general manager Frank Wren said nearly eight hours before the announcement that even if either pitcher accepted arbitration, it wouldn’t hinder the team’s ongoing roster moves and pursuit of offense. That statement will be tested in coming weeks.
“We feel protected either way,” Wren said Monday afternoon, and listed two possible results of arbitration decisions by Soriano and/or Gonzalez: “A., they don’t accept [arbitration]. B., they accept and at some point we trade them.
“It’s not a big deal either way.”
But there was no doubt the Braves preferred not to deal with the hassle of trying to trade either of them.
Tim Hudson’s Hometown Discount
The long-awaited announcement of Tim Hudson’s new contract with the Braves has finally come. The terms guarantee Hudson $9 million a year over the next three seasons, plus a $1 million buyout of a team option for a fourth year. The fourth-year option also pays out $9 million, so the total value that could be paid out is $36 million over four years. The contract voids a $12 million option for 2010, that the Braves were likely going to buy out for $1 million.
Hudson is an interesting player. He’s ranged from good to dominant. He was really pitching some of his best baseball as a Brave right before his injury. The good news is that he pitched well in his return through 42 innings. With a full offseason to recover, I think there is good reason to believe that he will be back to normal; however, the injury risk may have reduced his value somewhat. I proceed to my valuation with this caveat.
If Hudson pitches as he did in 2007 and 2008 over the course of a full season, then he’ll be worth about $12.5 million per year over the next three seasons. Thus, it appears that Hudson is giving the hometown discount that he promised—smart move by Frank Wren and the Braves. This allows the Braves to trade one of its other starters (who will it be?) and still have pitching stability going into the future.
If you see Hudson out and about in the Atlanta area, be sure to say “thanks”—but, please, don’t pester him. Or, maybe throw a little support to the Hudson Family Foundation. He wants to be in Atlanta, and he has strengthened his club by doing so. It’s nice to have you on board for the long haul, Tim.
(Forthcoming October 2010)
